Tuesday, September 28, 2021

    The 10 US cities most vulnerable to a housing downturn in a coronavirus-led recession

    The 10 US cities most vulnerable to a housing downturn in a coronavirus-led recession

    San FranciscoSan Francisco

    San Francisco.

    Luciano Mortula – LGM/Shutterstock


    • A recent analysis by Redfin found the 10 US metro areas most at risk of a housing downturn in the coronavirus-led recession.
    • The study measured each metro area on factors including the number of people employed in the leisure and hospitality industry and the the number of coronavirus cases per 1 million people as of March 24.
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    In the midst of the US’ battle against the coronavirus pandemic, industries across the globe are gearing up for an inevitable decline in business.

    A recent analysis by Redfin looked at the 50 most-populated metro areas across the US and found the 10 most at risk of a housing downturn in the coronavirus-led recession.

    In the report, Redfin emphasises that the US housing market had a strong start to 2020. In fact, in the last quarter of 2019, million-dollar sales were up 11% and housing prices overall were up, too. On an annual basis, 2019 saw the most first-time homebuyers since 1993, according to Genworth Mortgage Insurance. Then, in January, new home sales and pending home sales both shot up and inventory was at its lowest level since 2012.

    Because the housing market was in good shape heading into the pandemic, Redfin projected the coronavirus fallout to be mild and much less severe than the fallout caused by the 2008 recession.

    Nonetheless, markets across the country are still in danger of being economically impacted by the pandemic, some more than others.

    In order to find the 10 markets that will be most vulnerable, Redfin used 13 factors to find the overall risk score of each metro area.

    The factors measured include the number of people employed in the leisure and hospitality industry, the number of people employed in the air transportation industry, the median debt-to-income ratio, and the number of coronavirus cases per 1 million people as of March 24.

    Other, less weighted factors, include the median home sale price-to-household income ratio, home price volatility, the average loan-to-value ratio of homes sold in 2019, the percent of state GDP made up of imports from China, the percentage of households owned by people who are 65 or older, and the share of home sales that were flips.

    Keep reading for a look at the 10 housing markets most at risk of a downturn, ranked from lowest to highest risk score.

    9. New Orleans, Louisiana

    new orleans louisiana



    Meinzahn/iStock


    Recession risk score: 64.7%

    Median home value: $237,626

    Population: 389,648

    8. Riverside, California

    Riverside, California



    Shutterstock


    Recession risk score: 66.1%

    Median home value: $425,854

    Population: 323,935

    7. Chicago, Illinois

    Chicago Illinois



    Maria Sbytova/Shutterstock


    Recession risk score: 68.7%

    Median home value: $246,933

    Population: 2,718,555

    5. Las Vegas, Nevada

    las vegas nevada



    littlenySTOCK/Shutterstock


    Recession risk score: 73.9%

    Median home value: $288,195

    Population: 626,637

    4. San Francisco, California

    san francisco california



    Bill45/Shutterstock


    Recession risk score: 74.4%

    Median home value: $1,436,145

    Population: 870,044

    3. San Diego, California

    San Diego



    Shutterstock


    Recession risk score: 75.2%

    Median home value: $669,939

    Population: 1,401,932

    2. Miami, Florida

    miami florida



    Courtesy of TripAdvisor


    Recession risk score: 76.8%

    Median home value: $370,818

    Population: 451,214

    1. Los Angeles, California

    Los Angeles California



    Chones/Shutterstock


    Recession risk score: 77.6%

    Median home value: $599,700

    Population: 3,959,657

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